[BBC Learning English] Are opinion polls accurate?

 

[Today i learn]

※ words

pollster : (person who surveys opinion)

                Pollsters have released new numbers based on a much more through survey 

misfires : (a situation where something does not work as intended)

dissertation : (school, university : extended essay, doctoral thesis)

                       All final year students have to write a dissertation on a topic of their choice

                       The student was pleased to have finally finished the disseration for her doctorate

blank cheque : (you have unlimited money and freedom to complete a task)

as a whole. : [adv] (all considered together)

                       Some students need to improve, but the class as a whole is very good 

More or Less : [adv] (to a greater or lesser extent) ; 거의, 다소, 어느정도

                          I have more or less decided to delay going to college for a year

stark : (obvious, harsh and plain)

harsh : (manner: mean)(climate);  (태도) 가혹한, 엄격한 (기후) 혹독한, 매서운

             She was quite harsh with the kids. She should be nicer to them

             They have harsh winters in Norway

conduct polls : 여론조사 하다 (poll : number of votes cast)

 

※ expressions

by asking members of the public how they intend to vote

대중들에게 어떻게 투표할 건지 물어봄으로써

opinion polls don't always get it right

여론조사가 항상 맞는 것은 아니다 (e.g if you can't get it right, don't bother trying)

most polls predicted Trump would lose to Joe Biden by a much larger amount than he actually did

많은 여론조사가 트럼프가 바이든에게 실제보다 훨씬 큰 차이로 질 것이라고 예측했다  

when things do not work in the way intended

일이 뜻대로 되지 않을 때

it’s about another time when the opinion polls got it wrong.

여론조가가 틀렸던 다른 케이스(때) 에 대한 것입니다

people’s opinion on a range of subjects

다양한 주제들에 대한 사람들의 의견

(e.g. Mr. Clinton and Mr. Hastert spoke for about 20 minutes one day last week on a range of subjects as different as spending bills and breast cancer research, aides said) 

 by 1931 or so

1931년도 쯤 

polling was focused on consumer preferences

여론 조사는 소비자 선호도에 초점이 맞췄다

If people were understanding this process, that’s generating all the polls, then they would understand polls as less precise tools – tools that definitely can’t offer the laser-like predictive accuracy we’ve come to expect from them,

사람들이 여론조사를 만들어 내는 이 프로세스를 이해하는 중이었다면, 그들은 여론조사가 그렇제 정확하지 않은 툴이라는 것을 이해할 것이다.  (우리가 기대하는 레이저와 같은 정확한 예측 정확도를 제공할 수 없는 툴) 

(e.g

But that's what we've come to expect from Senator Obama

"And it's what we've come to expect from my opponent".

As such, it's the antithesis of the comatose conveyance pod we've come to expect from Toyota.

But this is what we've come to expect from Mayor Bloomberg and his gun control agenda".

Sure-footed diagnosis is what we have come to expect from our physicians.)

 

Maybe it’s not opinion polls that are broken but our desire to know the future that’s the problem.

잘못된 여론 조사가 문제가 아니라, 우리의 미래를 알고자하는 욕구가 문제일 것이다 

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[full scripts]

Neil
Hello. This is 6 Minute English from BBC Learning English. I’m Neil.

 

Sam
And I’m Sam. Predicting the future is not easy but that’s exactly the job of opinion pollsters – researchers who ask people questions to discover what they think about certain topics. Often their aim is predicting which political party will win in election by asking members of the public how they intend to vote.

 

Neil
But predicting the future is never one hundred percent accurate, and opinion polls don’t always get it right. In 2016, few pollsters predicted a victory for Donald Trump over Hillary Clinton in the US presidential election.

 

Sam
And in the 2020 US elections, most polls predicted Trump would lose to Joe Biden by a much larger amount than he actually did. These mistakes, sometimes called misfires -when things do not work in the way intended - have damaged the reputation of opinion pollsters. In this programme we’ll be taking a look into the opinion polling industry and, of course, learning some useful new vocabulary as well.

 

Neil
But first I have a question for you, Sam, and it’s about another time when the opinion polls got it wrong. Few pollsters predicted that Britain would vote to leave the European Union in the 2016 Brexit referendum which, in the end, it did. But what was the final split between those who voted to leave and those who wanted to remain? Was it:

a)      51 leave to 49 remain?

b)     52 leave to 48 remain?

c)      52 remain to 48 leave?

 

Sam
I think it was b) 52 percent voted to leave and 48 percent to remain.

 

Neil
OK, Sam, I’ll reveal the answer at the end of the programme.

 

Sam
One of the biggest polling companies was founded by George Gallup. Born in 1901 on a farm in Iowa, Gallup was a student of journalism. He wanted to know people’s opinion on a range of subjects and came up with a simple idea – why not try asking them? Here’s G Elliot Morris, a data journalist for ‘The Economist’, explaining more to BBC World Service programme, More or Less…

 

G Elliot Morris
And he publishes his dissertation on this - how to measure what people want, basically. And he gets hired by a much bigger advertising agency in New York called Young and Rubicam. And they basically give him a blank cheque to do their research, to figure out how to call people, how to talk to them, to figure out if they remember or liked a certain product. Basically to figure out early methodologies in advertising. And then by 1931 or so, he's wondering: well, if it works for toothpaste, why not politics?

 

Neil
George Gallup tried to figure out what customers wanted to buy. If you figure something out, you finally understand it or find a solution to a problem after thinking about it a lot.

 

Sam
Later he was hired by a New York advertising agency to find out people’s opinion of consumer products like toothpaste and soft drinks. George was given a blank cheque – an unlimited amount of money and freedom to do his job.

 

Neil
At this time, polling was focused on consumer preferences, not politics. But asking people about their political views is a lot more complicated than asking them about toothpaste. Making accurate election predictions depends on polling a sample group of people who accurately represent the population as a whole. One of the reasons for pollsters failure to predict Trump’s election in 2016 is that they didn’t ask enough white, non-college educated voters.

 

Sam
So, polling is a very complex process, one which is never totally reliable according to G Elliot Morris , speaking again here to BBC World Service’s, More or Less…

 

G Elliot Morris
If people were understanding this process, that’s generating all the polls, then they would understand polls as less precise tools – tools that definitely can’t offer the laser-like predictive accuracy we’ve come to expect from them, then the difference between polling’s’ expectations and performance wouldn’t be so stark.

 

Neil
Opinion polls can estimate the outcome of an election but they can’t give us laser-like accuracy. If you describe something as laser-like you mean it is very accurate and focused, like a laser.

 

Sam
If people understand how hard it is to predict the future, they might be more realistic about how accurate opinion polls can be. Then, differences between a prediction and the final result wouldn’t be so stark – obvious and easily visible, or harsh.

 

Neil
Predicting the future is difficult, otherwise everyone would be a lottery winner by now! Maybe it’s not opinion polls that are broken but our desire to know the future that’s the problem. OK, it’s time to reveal the answer to my question about the Brexit referendum.

 

Sam
I said the final result was 52 percent for leave and 48 percent for remain.

 

Neil
Which was… the correct answer! and another example of an opinion poll misfire – a situation where something does not work as intended. OK, let’s recap the rest of the vocabulary from this programme about opinion pollsters – people who conduct polls asking the public their opinion on particular subjects, especially politics.

 

Sam
If you figure something out, you finally understand it, or find the solution to a problem after thinking long and hard about it.

 

Neil
If someone gives you a blank cheque, you have unlimited money and freedom to complete a task.

 

Sam
When you describe something as laser-like you mean that it’s very accurate and precise.

 

Neil
And finally, the adjective stark has several meanings including obvious, harsh and plain. Once again, our six minutes are up. Bye for now!